STP1480: Probabilistic Analysis of the Creep Crack Growth Rate of Type 316LN Stainless Steel by the Monte Carlo Simulation

    Kim, Woo-Gon
    Principal Researcher, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon,

    Yoon, Song-Nam
    Graduate Student and Professor, Soong-sil University, Seoul,

    Ryu, Woo-Seog
    Principal Researcher, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon,

    Kim, Seon-Jin
    Professor, Pukyong National University, Busan,

    Yi, Won
    Graduate Student and Professor, Soong-sil University, Seoul,

    Pages: 10    Published: Jan 2007


    Abstract

    This paper presents a probabilistic analysis for evaluating the creep crack growth rate (CCGR) of type 316LN stainless steel. The CCGR data was obtained from the creep crack growth tests, which are conducted under various applied loads at 600°C. The crack growth rate was characterized as a function of the C* fracture parameter. In order to logically obtain the B and q values in the CCGR equation of a = B(C*)q, three methods of the least square fitting method (LSFM), a mean value method (MVM), and a probabilistic distribution method (PDM) were adopted. Also, using the Monte Carlo simulation, a number of random variables was generated, and the CCGR lines were predicted probabilistically. The three methods did not show a large difference in the CCGR lines, but the PDM was most useful because the CCGR line can be evaluated with a probabilistic reliability. Both the B and q coefficients followed a lognormal distribution, even though the B ones were a little scattered for the points of the data. In the case of a standard deviation of 1 σ for the probability variables, P (B,q), the results of the MCS and the PDM for the distribution ranges of the CCGR lines were compared and discussed.

    Keywords:

    creep crack growth rate, Type 316LN SS, probability, Monte Carlo simulation


    Paper ID: STP45504S

    Committee/Subcommittee: E08.06

    DOI: 10.1520/STP45504S


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