This paper presents a modelling analysis of the transition shift data of mild steel submerged-arc welds after surveillance irradiation in a Magnox power station at temperatures of 190°C and 200°C. The data are interpreted in terms of a matrix damage component and a component due tc irradiation-enhanced precipitation. Weld-to-weld variability is assessed in terms of a weld compositional dependence of the precipitate contribution. The variability is consistent with the presence of copper-rich precipitates but there is an additional influence of phosphorus. An increase in the irradiation temperature, or the irradiation damage rate, delays the development of the peak precipitate contribution to higher doses. Once developed, the peak precipitate contribution remains invariant during extended surveillance irradiation at about 200°C.
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