This study presents the development of a probability model for pavement slippage failure. A measurement method for a tack coat residual application rate in a field core through binder extraction was developed and verified. It was found that implementing a measurement method for tack coat quality acceptance is feasible. Pavement investigations were performed on two slippage failure cases in Indiana and confirmed that the residual application rates of slippage failed sections were significantly lower than those of non-failed sections. A slippage failure probability model in terms of residual application rates was developed through binary logistic regression analysis. The model can be used to determine appropriate residual application rates in consideration of its uniformity from a distributor and to develop tack coat specifications based on slippage failure probability.
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