Journal Published Online: 26 March 2013
Volume 41, Issue 3

Applying Hybrid Grey Models in Analyzing Tonnage Growth Trends in Bulk Shipping Among China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan



The development of bulk shipping is deeply affected by global economic prosperity or adversity. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan (CH&T) are not only the main suppliers of bulk carriers (bulkers), but also the major trading countries or areas in the world. The development of deadweight tonnages (DWTs) in these areas will significantly influence global trade. This paper begins with the supply side, using the latest 15 years of statistics from the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics to analyze the current development status of the bulk shipping market among CH&T. Further, four GM(1,1) models of grey theory are adopted to analyze the developmental trends of bulkers. The results show that, not only has the DWTs of the world been increasing, but also that in CH&T in the past few years. Second, after China and Taiwan became members of the World Trade Organization, the number of flagging-out vessels has been increasing more rapidly than the number of national vessels. Moreover, it can be said that DWTs will increase in China and Taiwan, but decrease in Hong Kong in the coming three years in terms of the growth trend. These findings will assist bulk shipping companies in making operational strategies, and government authorities in formulating supportive shipping policies.

Author Information

Chung, Cheng-Chi
Dept. of Shipping and Transportation Management, National Taiwan Ocean Univ., Keelung, TW
Pages: 12
Price: $25.00
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Stock #: JTE20120102
ISSN: 0090-3973
DOI: 10.1520/JTE20120102