With the aim of overcoming the deficiency of current threat-assessment approaches, which cannot make uncertainty analysis for the air-raid targets well, a new method based on connection number of set-pair analysis is proposed in this paper to make a dynamic threat assessment of air-raid targets. In principle, the interval value of the air-raid-target attribute starting from time t to time t + Δt will be normalized and transformed into the connection number of A + Bi type, whose modulus is utilized in the synthetic threat assessment of the air-raid target, and the i within the connection number will be employed to analyze its uncertainty. Examples of the threat assessment and the uncertainty analysis for five air-raid targets are carried out to prove the effectiveness and feasibility of this method. The results not only are compatible with the other methods, but also provide an uncertainty analysis as i varies and, thus, makes it more consistent with the actual situations in air warfare.
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