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This paper reviews the development of the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a comprehensive simulation model for predicting watershed hydrology, water quality, agricultural chemical migration, and risk assessment. The model uses such information as the time history of rainfall, temperature, and solar intensity, and characteristics of the land surface, such as land use patterns, soil characteristics, and agricultural practices, to simulate the processes that occur in a watershed. The flow rate, sediment load, and nutrient and pesticide concentrations are predicted. The model takes these results and information about the stream channels in the watershed and simulates the processes that occur in these streams. This part of the simulation produces a time history of water quantity, quality, and chemical transport at any point in a watershed—the inflow to a lake, for example. For ease of presentation and interpretation, flexible routines are provided for statistical analysis of the simulation output. A risk assessment methodology to evaluate lethal and sublethal effects, using the median lethal concentration (LC50) and maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) as the key effects parameters, is part of the analysis.
simulation, pesticides, risk assessment, water quality, planning, aquatic toxicology, hazard assessment
Civil engineer, Environmental Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Ga.