SYMPOSIA PAPER Published: 01 January 1984
STP30257S

Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Stochastic Age-Structured Models of Population Growth

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A method is developed to evaluate the risk of a population crossing a preassigned critical level in a given period of time. The method is based on the stochastic age-structured model of population dynamics. The two-step process is suggested. The first step constructs the “effective” one-dimensional model with the autocorrelated noise term reflecting the underlying multidimensional process. The second step solves the first passage time problem in a one-dimensional context.

Author Information

Ginzburg, LR
State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Book, N.Y.
Johnson, K
Analytics Ind., Tinton Falls, N.J.
Pugliese, A
State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, N.Y.
Gladden, J
Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Aiken, S.C.
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Details
Developed by Committee: D19
Pages: 31–45
DOI: 10.1520/STP30257S
ISBN-EB: 978-0-8031-4911-3
ISBN-13: 978-0-8031-0206-4