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A method is developed to evaluate the risk of a population crossing a preassigned critical level in a given period of time. The method is based on the stochastic age-structured model of population dynamics. The two-step process is suggested. The first step constructs the “effective” one-dimensional model with the autocorrelated noise term reflecting the underlying multidimensional process. The second step solves the first passage time problem in a one-dimensional context.
environment, risk assessment, stochastic models, age-structure, population growth, first passage
Professor, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Book, N.Y.
Analytics Ind., Tinton Falls, N.J.
Graduate student, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, N.Y.
Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Aiken, S.C.