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    Accelerated Service Life Predictions of Compact Discs

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    An Accelerated Life Expectancy test of 3M CD-ROM Media was performed on 9 sets of 16 discs. Each set was exposed to a different temperature/relative humidity combination and tested periodically for Mean Block Error Rate (BLER). By use of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate, (MLE), the rate of BLER change was determined for each disc. Within each test cell, the distribution of time for discs to reach End of-Life was fitted to a Weibull distribution and the resultant scale parameters regressed by MLE to solve an Eyring Acceleration Model. Temperature and relative humidity stresses were simultaneously modeled and relative acceleration factors were calculated for each cell. These acceleration factors were applied to the respective test cell data thereby normalizing all accelerated data to a common usage condition. From the combined normalized data an overall Weibull distribution was determined and the survival function was used to project product life-time capabilities and confidence intervals.


    Maximum Likelihood Estimate, Block Error Rate, Eyring, Weibull, Survival Function

    Author Information:

    Murray, WP
    Research Specialist, Saint Paul, MN

    Committee/Subcommittee: G03.08

    DOI: 10.1520/STP18184S