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An indicator kriging model of seismic hazard for southern California, based on the time period 1930 – 1971, is developed. This hazard assessment is evaluated in light of the occurrence of more recent, moderate earthquakes: the 1987 Whittier Narrows, the 1990 Upland, and the 1994 Northridge earthquakes. The hazard map shows relatively poor spatial correlation between regions of high hazard and known, active faults. A hypothesis is developed, however, suggesting that high seismic hazard in southern California is a function of spatial proximity to all active faults, not to any one active fault.
seismic hazard, modified Mercalli intensity, southern California, kriging, semivariogram, indicator functions
Professor, University of Nevada, Reno, NV