SYMPOSIA PAPER Published: 01 January 2000
STP10246S

A Probabilistic Analysis to Determine Ecological Risk Drivers

Source

A probabilistic analysis of exposure and effect data was used to identify chemicals most likely responsible for ecological risk. The mean and standard deviation of the natural log-transformed chemical data were used to estimate the probability of exposure for an area of concern and a reference area. Benchmarks of chemical effects were selected from criteria, standards, and toxicological thresholds in the literature and dose-response models developed for Pb were used to estimate the probability of an effect from Pb. Ecological risk, defined as the probability of exceeding a benchmark or causing an effect given the probability of exposure was calculated for the area of concern and reference area. The probability of an effect from Pb and probability of exceeding any combination of benchmarks were determined by Monte Carlo simulations. Chemicals that caused an incremental increase of risk ⩾ 0.05 above the reference area were identified as potential “risk drivers.”

Author Information

Johnston, RK
Marine Environmental Support Office, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, San Diego, CA
Munns, WR
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Atlantic Ecology Division, Narragansett
Nacci, DE
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Atlantic Ecology Division, Narragansett
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Details
Developed by Committee: E47
Pages: 68–82
DOI: 10.1520/STP10246S
ISBN-EB: 978-0-8031-5448-3
ISBN-13: 978-0-8031-2886-6