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    Volume 16, Issue 3 (May 1988)

    The Risks of Extrapolations of Metal Fatigue Data

    (Received 16 June 1986; accepted 28 September 1987)

    Published Online: 01 May 1988

    CODEN: JTEVAB

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    Abstract

    The risks associated with extrapolations are quantified by simulation for the case of metal fatigue data. Extrapolations to 1% failures are made from samples of 10 or 20 or 50 specimens for four assumed distributions of the failures. Two methods of extrapolation are investigated. Method A corresponds to straight line fitting on lognormal probability paper. Method B applies extreme value theory to the 40% smallest values in a sample and gives superior results for samples of 50 specimens. For the small samples usual in metal fatigue, Method A gives equally good (or poor) results. Results are presented in several measures. An empirical risk divisor is introduced as a practical means of reducing the risk.


    Author Information:

    Fuchs, HO
    Professor Emeritus of Mechanical Engineering, and Professor of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA

    Johns, MV
    Professor Emeritus of Mechanical Engineering, and Professor of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA


    Stock #: JTE10378J

    ISSN:0090-3973

    DOI: 10.1520/JTE10378J

    Author
    Title The Risks of Extrapolations of Metal Fatigue Data
    Symposium ,
    Committee G03