Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Stochastic Age-Structured Models of Population Growth

    Published: Jan 1984

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    A method is developed to evaluate the risk of a population crossing a preassigned critical level in a given period of time. The method is based on the stochastic age-structured model of population dynamics. The two-step process is suggested. The first step constructs the “effective” one-dimensional model with the autocorrelated noise term reflecting the underlying multidimensional process. The second step solves the first passage time problem in a one-dimensional context.


    environment, risk assessment, stochastic models, age-structure, population growth, first passage

    Author Information:

    Ginzburg, LR
    Professor, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Book, N.Y.

    Johnson, K
    Analytics Ind., Tinton Falls, N.J.

    Pugliese, A
    Graduate student, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, N.Y.

    Gladden, J
    Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Aiken, S.C.

    Committee/Subcommittee: D19.02

    DOI: 10.1520/STP30257S

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