SEDL / STP / STP845-EB / STP30257S

Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Stochastic Age-Structured Models of Population Growth

Ginzburg, LR
Professor, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Book, N.Y.

Johnson, K
Analytics Ind., Tinton Falls, N.J.

Pugliese, A
Graduate student, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, N.Y.

Gladden, J
Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Aiken, S.C.

Pages: 15    Published: Jan 1984

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Abstract

A method is developed to evaluate the risk of a population crossing a preassigned critical level in a given period of time. The method is based on the stochastic age-structured model of population dynamics. The two-step process is suggested. The first step constructs the “effective” one-dimensional model with the autocorrelated noise term reflecting the underlying multidimensional process. The second step solves the first passage time problem in a one-dimensional context.