SEDL / STP / STP1283-EB / STP16124S

Revisiting the Characterization of Seismic Hazard Using Geostatistics: A Perspective after the 1994 Northridge, California Earthquake

Carr, JR
Professor, University of Nevada, Reno, NV

Pages: 12    Published: Jan 1996

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Abstract

An indicator kriging model of seismic hazard for southern California, based on the time period 1930 – 1971, is developed. This hazard assessment is evaluated in light of the occurrence of more recent, moderate earthquakes: the 1987 Whittier Narrows, the 1990 Upland, and the 1994 Northridge earthquakes. The hazard map shows relatively poor spatial correlation between regions of high hazard and known, active faults. A hypothesis is developed, however, suggesting that high seismic hazard in southern California is a function of spatial proximity to all active faults, not to any one active fault.