Head, Environmental and Industrial Risks, Géostock, Rueil-Malmaison
Manager, FSS Consultants SA, Geneva,
Manager, FSS International r&d, Chaville,
Head, Geophysical Services, Géostock, Rueil-Malmaison
Pages: 19 Published: Jan 1996
A case study is presented of building a map showing the probability that the concentration in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exceeds a critical threshold. This assessment is based on existing PAH sample data (direct information) and on an electrical resistivity survey (indirect information). Simulated annealing is used to build a model of the range of possible values for PAH concentrations and of the bivariate relationship between PAH concentrations and electrical resistivity. The geostatistical technique of simple indicator kriging is then used, together with the probabilistic model, to infer, at each node of a grid, the range of possible values which the PAH concentration can take. The risk map is then extracted for this characterization of the local uncertainty. The difference between this risk map and a traditional iso-concentration map is then discussed in terms of decision-making.
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contamination, geostatistics, integration of geophysical data, uncertainty characterization, probability maps, simulated annealing, bivariate distributions, indicator kriging
Paper ID: STP16114S