Volume 4, Issue 7 (July 2007)

    Statistical Evaluation of Promoted Ignition Test Data

    (Received 18 February 2007; accepted 18 June 2007)

    Published Online: 2007

    CODEN: JAIOAD

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    Abstract

    This paper presents an analysis of promoted ignition test data based on formal statistical techniques. Logistic regression is identified as an appropriate method for modeling binary burn–no-burn test data. Logistic regression is applied to the data sets from promoted ignition testing of two Hastelloy® alloys, C-276 and G-3, previously published by Zawierucha , ASTM STP 1111, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, 1991, pp. 270–287. The logistic regression model is used to predict the burn probability over a range of pressures in the nonflammable and flammable domains, and was shown to fit the raw data well. Confidence intervals for the model are also determined, allowing the uncertainty associated with the predicted burn probabilities to be quantified. The relationship between the amount of test data available and confidence levels is discussed, and recommendations are made to improve the current standard test methodology. In particular, more repeated tests are required at all pressure levels considered, and tests are also required at pressures in the nonflammable domain (in addition to the flammable domain). It is shown that there is a low level of statistical confidence associated with the definition of threshold pressure under the current methodology. It is concluded that the use of the logistic regression model is beneficial since it allows for the quantification of burn probabilities and confidence levels, which enables the definition of threshold pressure to be related to a critical burn probability threshold.


    Author Information:

    Suvorovs, Terese
    Postgraduate Students, School of Engineering Systems, Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering, Queensland University of Technology, QLD,

    Ward, Nicholas R.
    Postgraduate Students, School of Engineering Systems, Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering, Queensland University of Technology, QLD,

    Steinberg, Theodore A.
    Associate Professor, School of Engineering Systems, Faculty of Built Envinronment and Engineering, Queensland University of Technology, QLD,

    Wilson, Richard
    Senior Lecturer, School of Mathematics, The University of Queensland, QLD,


    Stock #: JAI101068

    ISSN: 1546-962X

    DOI: 10.1520/JAI101068

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    Author
    Title Statistical Evaluation of Promoted Ignition Test Data
    Symposium , 0000-00-00
    Committee G04