Volume 47, Issue 5 (September 2002)

    Estimation of the Quantity of a Drug in a Consignment from Measurements on a Sample

    (Received 29 April 2002; accepted 17 April 2002)

    Published Online: September

    CODEN: JFSOAD

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    Abstract

    A consignment of individual packages is thought to contain illegal material, such as drugs, in some or all of the packages. A sample from the consignment is inspected and the quantity of drugs in each package of the sample is measured. It is desired to estimate the total quantity of drugs in the consignment. Sampling variation is present in the original measurements and it is not sufficient just to adjust the sample mean pro rata. An analysis is described which takes account of the uncertainty concerning the proportion of the packages that contain drugs and provides a probabilistic summary of the quantity of drugs in the consignment. In particular, a probabilistic lower bound for the quantity of drugs in the consignment is given, which is dependent on the required standard of proof. This is in contrast to the approach based on confidence intervals which assumes that in the long run, the interval will contain the correct quantity the appropriate proportion of the time, but gives no measure of uncertainty associated with the particular consignment under consideration.


    Author Information:

    Aitken, CGG
    Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics and Legal Reasoning, The King's Buildings, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh,

    Lucy, D
    Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics and Legal Reasoning, The King's Buildings, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh,


    Stock #: JFS15519J

    ISSN: 0022-1198

    DOI: 10.1520/JFS15519J

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    Author
    Title Estimation of the Quantity of a Drug in a Consignment from Measurements on a Sample
    Symposium , 0000-00-00
    Committee E30